Climate Trend Analysis - NDC Sector Implementation in the Eastern Caribbean

This study will assess historical and projected climate trends in the Eastern Caribbean and analyze their intersection with key socioeconomic indicators, including GDP, employment, inequality, and human development outcomes.

TERMS OF REFERENCE 

 1.     BACKGROUND 

The Eastern Caribbean is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, facing escalating risks from rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increasingly frequent and severe weather events such as hurricanes and droughts. These climate stressors are already altering ecological balances and threatening both lives and livelihoods. In particular, changing precipitation patterns and prolonged dry spells are exacerbating water insecurity and food production challenges, while intensified storms continue to damage infrastructure and displace communities. 

The economies of the Eastern Caribbean are structurally dependent on climate-sensitive sectors, including tourism, agriculture, and fisheries. These sectors are vital sources of employment and income, especially in rural and coastal communities, yet they remain acutely exposed to climate shocks. Climate-induced disruptions to these industries not only undermine economic productivity but also increase fiscal strain and deepen existing inequalities. 

Beyond the economic consequences, climate change significantly amplifies social vulnerabilities. Low-income households, migrants, persons with disabilities, and children are disproportionately affected by both sudden-onset disasters and slow-onset climate stressors. These impacts are already testing the limits of health, education, and social protection systems—institutions that are critical to human capital development and social resilience. 

While countries across the Eastern Caribbean have made notable progress in advancing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and implementing adaptation measures, critical data gaps remain. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive, data-driven analysis that links climate trends to social and economic outcomes—past, present, and projected. Such analysis is key to understanding the medium- and long-term implications of climate change for national development, and for informing anticipatory action, risk-informed planning, and investment in resilience. 

This study will assess historical and projected climate trends in the Eastern Caribbean and analyze their intersection with key socioeconomic indicators, including GDP, employment, inequality, and human development outcomes. It will provide actionable insights and evidence-based recommendations to support policy and fiscal planning, climate finance strategies, and the implementation of NDCs. Particular attention will be given to sectors relevant to UNICEF’s mandate—education, health, and social protection—highlighting opportunities to strengthen systemic resilience and ensure that no child is left behind in a changing climate.

2.   OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT    

This study will serve as a Cost of Inaction (COI) analysis to quantify the medium- and long-term consequences of failing to adequately respond to climate change in the Eastern Caribbean. Framed through a child-sensitive and equity-focused lens, the study will generate evidence to inform urgent, risk-informed investments in resilience, social protection, and inclusive development. The primary objectives of the study are: 

• To assess historical and projected climate trends and analyze their implications for national development and socioeconomic growth, especially in relation to outcomes for children in the Eastern Caribbean such as poverty, health, education, social protection, employment and climate resilience. 

• To assess the vulnerability of key economic sectors (e.g. tourism, agriculture, fisheries) to climate change, identifying how sectoral disruptions undermine national productivity, employment, and the resilience of communities – particularly those affecting children/youth. 

• Quantify the impact of climate change on human development indicators such as poverty, inequality, health, education, and protection – highlighting the disproportionate negative impact on children, women and marginizalized popualtions. 

• Estimate the economic and social cost of inaction, including projected losses to GDP, public spending, and human capital if anticipatory and adaptive measures are not scaled up. 

• To provide evidence-based, actionable recommendations for governments and partners to adapt policies, strengthen financing strategies, and invest in child-sensitive and shock responsive systems across education, health, and social protection to address climate-related challenges effectively.

3.   METHODOLOGY

The Contractor will develop a detailed methodology and work plan aligned with the study’s objectives, combining quantitative analysis with policy and systems review, leveraging existing datasets, secondary literature, and modeling tools. The approach must be interdisciplinary, incorporating climate science, economics, and social policy analysis, and include a specific lens on children and equity. 

At a minimum, the methodology should include:

1. 1.       Climate Risk and Hazard Exposure Trend Analysis

• Compilation and analysis of historical and projected 10 years projected climate data (temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events) using reputable global and regional datasets (e.g. NOAA, IPCC, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology).
• Projection of climate scenarios using downscaled models (e.g. RCP 4.5/8.5) to assess likely future climate risks for each country.
• GIS-based risk mapping to visualize multi-hazard exposure for populations, infrastructure, and key economic assets, with overlays for schools, health facilities, and child-populated areas. 

1. 2.       Macroeconomic and Sectoral Impact Assessment

• ·       Estimation of direct and indirect economic losses in key climate-sensitive sectors using  computable general equilibrium (CGE) models or partial equilibrium models.
• Analysis of climate shocks on employment, GDP, productivity, and public expenditures.
• Integration of sectoral productivity data (e.g. tourism, agriculture, fisheries) to assess climate sensitivity and employment risks.
• Economic cost estimation of climate inaction versus accelerated adaptation. 

1. 3.       Socioeconomic and Human Development Impact Analysis of climate change impacts on child-specific indicators: nutrition, education disruption, health outcomes, displacement, child poverty.

• Assessment of vulnerability using national household survey data and administrative data, with a focus on child poverty, nutrition, school attendance, and health indicators.
• Analysis of past disaster impacts and coping mechanisms of households with children, drawing from Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) and national reports.
• Estimation of long-term human capital impacts of delayed action (e.g., interrupted education, MPHSS impact, health outcomes) linked to climate-related shocks and slow-onset stressors. 

1. 4.       Risk of Inaction

• Integrated modeling of economic and human development costs under inaction, using comparable metrics (e.g., DALYs lost, income foregone, school days/months lost).
• Estimation of opportunity costs in terms of lost development dividends (e.g., social protection efficiency, green jobs, resilience gains).
• Regional comparisons and illustrative country-specific case examples. 

1. 5.       Policy, Finance, and Institutional Review

• Analysis of NDCs, national development plans, and budget allocations to assess integration of climate-related and child-sensitive sectors.
• Mapping potential climate finance mechanisms (Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, multilateral financing) and co-financing opportunities to support systemic resilience. 

1. 6.       Stakeholder Consultations and Validation

• Key informant interviews with government ministries (planning, finance, social development, environment), civil society, youth groups, and UN partners.
• Stakeholder roundtables (virtual or in-person, if feasible) for triangulation of findings and co-creation of recommendations.
• Integration of youth voices and child-centred perspectives in findings and framing. 

Findings should be disaggregated by country when possible, and wherever possible by age, gender, and geographic location, with particular attention to vulnerable groups such as children, migrants, and persons with disabilities. Data gaps and system-level weaknesses in climate-risk-informed planning should be identified, with specific recommendations for improvement. 

4. DESCRIPTION OF PLANNED ACTIVITIES

   The study will include six main components:

1.       Climate Trend Analysis: Analyze past and projected climate trends e.g., hurricanes, droughts, floods), with disaggregated data where available (e.g., by geography, time period). To help identify climate risks most relevant to livelihoods and economic sectors in each country.

2.       NDC sectoral Impact Assessment: Analysis of how climate trends affect key economic sectors, including agriculture, tourism, fisheries, infrastructure, and other productivity-driven industries. Model economic losses and labor market disruptions under different climate risk scenarios, and evaluate sectoral vulnerabilities.

3.       Socioeconomic Analysis: Evaluation of the effects of climate variability on economic growth, employment patterns, income distribution, social protection needs, and human development.

4.       Policy and financing pathways/recommendations: Provide actionable policy recommendations and financing options for anticipatory action, risk-informed planning, and climate-smart social services. Identify adaptive strategies and investment options to integrate climate resilience into national planning and strengthen shock-responsive social protection, using public, private, and climate finance.

1. 5.       Data Gaps and Systems Strengthening: Identify opportunities for improving data systems for risk-informed planning, especially for social protection and disaster response.
2. 6.       Stakeholder consultation and advocacy products
   Organize participatory validation processes and produce knowledge outputs (e.g., policy brief, PPT deck, technical report) tailored for policy, donor, and youth engagement.

5. EXPECTED DELIVERABLES AND REPORTING  

Note: All deliverables must incorporate feedback from UNICEF and be finalized upon joint validation. The timeline is indicative and subject to agreement at contract initiation.

6. MANAGEMENT/REPORTING    

The study will be conducted under the supervision and management of the Programme Specialist (Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Change) at the UNICEF office in the Eastern Caribbean. Regular progress updates and validation meetings will be held with key stakeholders. 

7. KEY SKILLS, TECHNICAL BACKGROUND, AND EXPERIENCE REQUIRED  UNICEF seeks an internationally recognized institution with expertise in climate trend analysis and socioeconomic assessments, with a strong track record in climate risk assessment, economic modeling, and social policy analysis—particularly within Small Island Developing States (SIDS) or similar high-vulnerability contexts. The selected institution must demonstrate the following:

Qualifications required of the working team assigned by the Institution for this consultancy: Institutional Experience

• A minimum of 10 years of demonstrated experience in conducting interdisciplinary research on climate change, economic resilience, and public policy, preferably in developing country or SIDS contexts.
• Proven experience in applying computable general equilibrium (CGE), partial equilibrium, or other macroeconomic models to assess climate and socioeconomic impacts.
• Expertise in climate finance and policy analysis, including experience supporting governments in developing or analyzing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), sectoral adaptation plans, or public finance frameworks.
• Experience working with UN agencies, multilateral development banks, or international donors is highly desirable. 

Required Team Composition and Profiles

The institution must propose a qualified multidisciplinary team that includes, members of the team with at least:

• Proven expertise in climate trend analysis, hazard modeling, and interpretation of climate scenarios (e.g., RCPs/SSPs). Familiarity with regional datasets and downscaling tools preferred.
• Experience in macroeconomic and sectoral modeling (CGE or similar), climate-sensitive productivity analysis, and public finance. Understanding of fiscal policy impacts and adaptation costing is essential.
• Background in assessing impacts of climate risks on social protection, health, education, and equity outcomes. (Familiarity with UNICEF’s equity-based programming and child-sensitive indicators preferred).
• Familiarity with climate finance architecture (e.g., GCF, Adaptation Fund, MDBs), and the development of investment cases or financing strategies for climate adaptation and resilience.
• Skilled in spatial risk mapping, integration of geospatial and socioeconomic datasets, and advanced statistical modeling for vulnerability analysis. 

General Requirements

• Fluency in English (spoken and written) is required; knowledge of Caribbean regional contexts is an advantage.
• Demonstrated ability to deliver high-quality, policy-relevant research outputs within tight deadlines and in coordination with UN or government partners.
• Proven expertise (minimum 10 years) in climate resilience, economic modeling, and policy analysis.
• Experience in GIS mapping, statistical modeling, and economic forecasting.
• A multidisciplinary team, including:
  • Climate scientists with expertise in trend analysis and modeling.
  • Experts with experience in macroeconomic policy, productivity analysis, and public finance, climate finance.
  • Social protection or human development specialists.
  • Data analysts skilled in GIS mapping, statistical modeling, and economic forecasting.
  • Previous experience with UNICEF or other UN agencies is an asset. 

8. RISKS    

The primary risks are that the production of the different deliverables will be delayed and of poor quality. To mitigate these risks, the UNICEF MCO Social Policy Specialist will work closely with the selected firm to ensure that timelines are being closely adhered to and the different outputs are of strong quality.

9. TECHNICAL EVALUATION CRITERIA AND RELATIVE POINTS       

The bidding institutions will be assessed based on agreed criteria. The applicants will firstly be evaluated on their technical capacity by a team of UNICEF staff. After this, a Financial evaluation will be conducted. The ratio between technical and financial offer weight will be 70/30 and only applicants who will receive a minimum of 55 points under a technical evaluation will be considered technically compliant and assessed on price proposal. Technical proposals must be separate from Financial offers. The criteria for evaluating the submissions of proposals/bids are as below: 

Table 1: Evaluation Matrix 

Note: The Financial Proposals will be opened only to the companies considered technically approved (range between 49 to 70 points). Additionally, financial proposals will be tabulated within the Technical Proposal and the final range will be provided. 

10. RESOURCE

UNICEF reserves the right to withhold all or a portion of payment if performance is unsatisfactory, if work/outputs are incomplete, not delivered or for failure to meet deadlines. Performance indicators against which the satisfactory conclusion of this contract will be assessed include timeliness/quality of submission and responsiveness to UNICEF and counterpart feedback.

11. PROPERTY RIGHTS 

UNICEF shall hold all property rights, such as copyright, patents and registered trademarks, on matters directly related to, or derived from, the work carried out through this contract with UNICEF. The bidder must submit all documentation and source code where necessary to UNICEF upon successful launch. 

12. HOW TO APPLY      

The application package should include the following:

a.Technical Proposal

b.  Financial Proposal (Detailed budget stipulating all-inclusive fees)

c. Evidence of similar services provided in the past or currently; include a maximum of two (2) examples showcasing company expertise in the areas outlined in this terms or reference 

Prospective institutional or corporate contractors should apply to the above email address no later than June 23^rd  on or before 17:00hrs (GMT-4.00 Eastern Time). Kindly ensure the subject line is denoted with the heading “Climate Trends and Socioeconomic Impact TOR”.